ABSTRACT
It is globally accepted that media
reporting, to a great extent, influences voters perception of given candidates
for public office. The adoption of propaganda in electioneering campaigns
including use of hate speeches could make or mar the chances of presidential
candidates at leadership ascendancy. Inspite of existing laws regulating
reporting of political events, there was massive use of hate speeches and
propaganda ahead of the presidential elections of 2011 and 2015 in Nigeria,
which led to electoral violence. The study examined media reporting and the nature
of its influence on voting behaviour and leadership ascendancy during the said
presidential elections.
This study employed survey research
design. The study population consisted 160 million, using the 2006 census. Multi
stage sampling technique was used in the process of selection. Six states, one
from each geopolitical zone (Abia, Bauchi, Kaduna, Lagos, Plateau, Rivers),
were purposively selected, with a total population of 30,954,672, (being states
that recorded electoral violence cases). Using Yamane’s formula, a sample size
of 2,169 was determined. Snowball sampling technique was used in selecting the
interviewees; namely, six senators one each from the geopolitical zones, six
reporters, and three correspondents from Television houses. The instruments
used for data collection werevalidated questionnaireand interview guide. The
Cronbach’s alpha reliability coefficients for the constructs ranged from 0.724
to 0.819.The response rate was 93%. Data from the questionnaire were analyzed
using descriptive and inferential statistics. Data from front pages of 6 national
newspapers were content-analysed. Data from personal interviews were analysed
according to themes.
The findings showed that media reporting
had a significant influence on voting behaviour (R2 = 0.388, F(1,2014)
= 1274.872; p < 0.05); and on leadership ascendancy (R2 = 0.478,
F(1,2014) = 1274.872; p < 0.05). Moreover it was revealed that
positive and significant relationships existed between voting behaviour and
leadership ascendancy (r = 0.693; p < 0.05). Media reporting and voting behaviour
had a significant influence on leadership ascendancy (Adj.R2 =
0.590, F(2,2013)= 1450.562; p < 0.05,). Television was the main
media source used that influenced voting behaviour. Other extraneous factors
such as monetary inducement, ethnic and religious affiliation, opinion of
community leaders, godfatherism, and personal benefits influenced voters’
choice of leadership in 2011 and 2015.
The study concluded
that media reporting of party propaganda, hate speeches, and programme promises,
influenced voters choice of candidates, thereby determining leadership
ascendancy in both 2011 and 2015 presidential elections in Nigeria. It was
recommended that the National Broadcasting Commission and Nigerian Press
Council should strictly implement the Electoral Act 2010 No. 6 Section 99-102; on
media houses that engage in reporting hate speeches and propaganda. In addition,
Independent National Electoral Commission should engage in massive political
education programmes to promote peaceful conduct of elections.
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1
Background to the Study
Media reporting of events and issues in
Nigeria has advanced significantly within the upsurges of the country’s
politics, especially in her processes of elections. Yet, there seems to be a
growing concern on the influence of media reporting in the past presidential
elections and more critically in the 2011 and 2015 presidential elections. A
cursory look at the influence exerted by media reporting around the world in
presidential election processes, strains the importance of studying the
influence of media reporting in aforementioned subject in Nigeria. Media refers
to any means of transmitting information which is done through the various
forms, devices, and systems that make up mass communications considered as a
whole, including newspapers, magazines, radio stations, television channels,
and the internet. Media reporting therefore is the use of these medium to
present news or report events or issues (Danesi, 2009).
Media reporting is not done in a vacuum,
it makes use of linguistic which makes reporting effective and significant
(Allan, 2015) The phonology in writing or broadcasting an event or an issue has
much to do with the understanding or misunderstanding of the event or issue
being reported. Again, the approach or the attitude in which the written event
or broadcast is being released to the masses affect their understanding of the
information passed to them. This in turn brings to fore the intended goal of
the media in their report of such events and issues under discussion. This can
be summed up to be news framing. McQuail (2010) agrees that framing may
activate certain inferences, ideas, judgments and contrast concerned issues,
policies and politicians. The slant may dictate what readers may likely
perceive and how voters may behave after such perception from the media towards
making a political choice.
Voting behaviour therefore is a
political behaviour of choice or preference based on the information available
to the voter (Zahida & Younis, 2014). The plan of the media is always to
sway the masses opinion on a particular issue to achieve a specific result. No
difference is found when it comes to the matter of politics and the influence language
of media reporting approach or attitude of report exert on voting
behaviour. The influence of media on
voters and their conviction towards any candidate as has been sold to them by
the media produces leadership.
As a matter of fact, leadership has been
a source of attraction, estimation, legend, and myth since the beginning of
civilized societies. The Egyptians for instance had hieroglyphics for
leadership, leader, and follower 5000 years ago. Both Plato and Aristotle were
not exempted from this issue as they wrote about leadership, contemplating on
the requirements of the ideal leader in an ideal state. Many Countries in the
world and particularly in the continent of Africa have experienced leadership
ascendency through elections and some through coup d’état, and the country
Nigeria is not an exception in her developmental stages since October 1, 1960
when she gained her independence. However, democratically political development
in Nigeria has taken a center phase in recent times, this is affixed on the
fact that since May 29, 1999, the country seem to have maintained a stable
democratic dispensation. Nevertheless, one common feature of recent wave is
media reporting influence on voting behavior to leadership ascendancy.
Countries like France, Britain, Sweden, and the USA as examples, make use of
the mass media to educate voters (Udende, 2011). Hence the reason for their
much dependence on the media for information.
Consequently, the influence of Media
reporting on voting behavior to leadership ascendancy in Nigeria has attracted
the interest of scholars, practitioners, political leaders and observers, Agba (2006);
Antoci, Sabatini, and Mauro (2012); Durante, Brian, and Knight, (2012); Dyck
David, and Luigi (2013) Egba, (2003);
Egbuna (2011); Gabadebo (2010); Galadima (2012); Galadima & Enighe (2001); Sabatini (2012);and
Sabatini and Sarracino (2014). The following scholars, Antoci, Sabatini, and
Mauro (2012); Dyck, Moss, and Luigi (2013) Sabatini,(2012); and Sabatini, and
Sarracino (2014) posit that the manner in which the media (radio, television,
newspapers, magazines) report events, campaigns and information exert influence
on voters in their choice of leadership selection.On the contrary, Alatobi,
(2013), Didmus (2009) Okafor (2014), Zahida and Younis (2014) are of the
opinion that other factors apart from reporting influence voting behavior to
leadership ascendancy.
Therefore, leadership ascendancy is
perceived as the action of leading or directing
a group of people or an organization, or the ability to occupy a position of
dominant power or influence or the state of being in the leading; governing or controlling influence; domination. Within the last
decade, a new surge of leader has risen to positions of official leadership in
Nigeria. Official leadership positions, as defined by Robnett (1996), are those
that are institutionally acknowledged positions inside an organization which
involve essential control over assistants. Skilled political action within a
party earns members the reputation required to raise themselves to positions of
leadership which they do by effectively making use of the media to extend their
influence.
Again, the media as an institution play
a pivotal role in creating awareness and shaping attitudes in society. Also,
the media constitute the real public space through which citizens understand
politics. This role makes the media a veritable tool to either make or mar any
aspirant from winning an election. The media at times use true facts to draw
false conclusions and this is where the media saying, “if thoughts corrupt
language, language can also corrupt thoughts”(Orwell,2011: 16). This is because
different political groups with their jingles, agenda and public issues attract
voters knowingly or unknowingly and the reporting of the media mold voting
behaviour and their opinion. Strong democracy depends on information and
knowledge. It is often said that information is power and that correct
information is vital to clear thinking, just as clear thinking is vital to
making sound judgment. Voters can be influenced ranging from ethnicity to
religious, leading voters to making certain decisions as regards selection of
candidates based on the information available to them and the manner in which
it has been reported.
In order for any democratic system to
flourish, political parties and candidates are to provide the electorate with
satisfactory information on party policies, unambiguous vision as well as their
political agenda to enable electorate dynamically choose their candidates
founded on full evidence. To realize this, political parties use the media in
campaigns. Curran (2005) states that the media assist voters to make
knowledgeable choice at election time. This is done in form of social media
campaigns, paid political advertisments, commentaries and news stories. For an
election to be considered free and fair, electorate must have adequate knowledge
of the candidates, political parties and election policies
Lately, political parties and their
candidates have come to realize the effectiveness of advertisements and the
role it plays in getting the electorate chose a particular candidate or party
over the other by way of enlightening them. The manner in which mass media
report things has become progressively popular and is significant to the
electoral process and voting behavior because it bridges the communication gap
between political parties, political candidates and electorate. Hence,
political parties and candidates all around the world dedicate a lot of
financial resources to patronize media houses to sell themselves as the
preferred brand to the electorate. Interestingly, the most questions that come
up in elections are concerned with voting behavior and why the electorate voted
for a candidate over the other as well as the implication of their choice. Arguments have ensued among scholars and
communication experts that when politicians crafts their campaign messages as
possible solution to improve voters lives, or something similar and come with
some perceived decent measure of integrity, voters are more likely to believe
them (Feyipitan 2015). In other words, the electorate are most likely to trust
candidates whose political campaigns offer to satisfy their basic needs as
opposed to those who dwell on their personal achievements pending on the way it
is communicated through the media.
Presidential elections of 2011 and 2015
in Nigeria, witnessed large patronage of various forms of mass media by political
parties and candidates for the singular purpose of winning electorate
votes. At the end, Goodluck Jonathan who
was the candidate of the People Democratic Party (PDP) won in 2011 and Mohammad
Buhari of All Progressive Congress (APC) emerged as the President of Federal Republic
of Nigeria in 2015 respectively. Before
the elections, their campaigns filled media airwaves, social media and
billboards with messages for every class of people who made up the electorate.
Their jingles dominated radio and television stations, social media sites while
their messages streamed the print and outdoor media with promises to
deliver. However, the extent to which
media reporting of their campaigns fostered their winning remains the task of
this research. The starring role or sway
exerted by the approach and modus in which the media report events and its
weight on voters behavior has enticed or motivated the interest of many
scholars, spectators and political cream of the crop in Nigeria more especially
this research as it forms the thrust of the entire work.
1.2
Statement of the Problem
The media, in all their manifestations,
are instruments to make or mar the attainment to leadership positions,
especially of political aspirants. The vibrant flow of information provided by
the media seems to increase political knowledge, sharpen public debate and push
candidates to make genuine political clichés, and arguably also, the
availability of alternative sources of information gives life to political
competition. The more sources of information available, the greater the
public’s knowledge, and this role is performed by the media.
Akeke, Akeke and Awolusi(2015) observed
that the purpose of the media is for political communication.Propaganda in
politics was the problem that drew the researchers’ attention to this study, on
how wrong or false information is disseminated by the media to make or mar a
presidential candidate from attaining a leadership position. Irrespective of
the fact that the media creates awareness, majority of the populace and even
voters lack basic knowledge about the entire political process, and may take
unreasonable decisions on election matters particularly. Slant, language,
frequency, interest and bias of reportage which the media chooses may have
negative or positive influence on voting behaviour and consequently on
leadership ascendancy which in the negative leads to electoral violence. About
1000 people lost their lives in the 2011 Presidential elections (Olukotun
2014). Also Prior to the presidential election of March 28, 2015, there were a
lot of trepidation about the elections turning violent because of previous
experiences of some politicians seeing the election as a do-or-die issue,
fighting dirty with half-truths, outright lies and bitter words.
Hence the two major contestants Goodluck
Ebele Jonathan and Muhammad Buhari along with other party leaders first signed
what has now come to be known as the Abuja Accord on January 14, 2015. It was
adopted first through acclamation and then signed by all candidates present.
For purpose of clarity, the Accord binds
the candidates on covenants: To run issue-based campaigns at all level, shorn
and devoid of religious incitement and ethnic or tribal profiting. To avoid
making inflammatory or inciting statements and declarations capable of stoking
the fire of violence and unrest before, during or after the election. To
denounce publicly provocative utterances and oppose all acts of electoral
violence whether perpetrated by supporters and/or opponents. To commit themselves
and their parties to the monitoring of the adherence to the accord if
necessary, by a national peace committee composed of respected statesmen and
women, traditional and religious leaders. All the institutions of the
government including INEC and security agencies must act and be seen to act
with impartiality. They apparently agreed for
themselves and on behalf of their supporters that there will be peace before,
during and after the elections whether they win or lose. They agreed,
among other thing, to run an issue-based campaign and vowed that their
electoral campaigns will not involve any religious provocation, ethnic or
tribal profiling, both by themselves and all agents acting on their behalf. It
was again renewed on Thursday March, 26, 2015, 48 hours to the election. This
dread may not be unconnected with the fact that in 2011, around 1000 people
were killed in violence after President Goodluck defeated President Buhari
(Olukotun 2014).
According to Towolawi (2015), ‘nothing
fuels electoral violence as base, sentimental campaign dimensioned on primitive
and primordial inclinations with no bearing on agenda, ideology, peoples’
welfare, governance, and development. Our politicians must shun puerile
mudslinging and needless character assassination to further political agenda’.
The influence of media on Nigerians especially during the 2011 and 2015
presidential elections sequel to voting behaviour is worthy of study. Television
broadcasts and newspaper stories are the important source of information about
the conduct of government and politicians, clearly indicating how important it
is to study media influence. George and Waldfogel (2006), Della, Vigna and
Kaplan (2007) assert that media sources may influence the public not only by
choosing the slant of a particular report, but also merely by choosing what to
report. This study therefore examined the influence of media reporting on
voting behavior and leadership ascendancy during the 2011, and 2015 presidential
elections in Nigeria.
1.3
Objective of the Study
The main objective of this study was to
examine the influence of media reporting on voting behaviour and leadership
ascendancy, using the 2011 and 2015 presidential elections in Nigeria as a case
in point.The specific objectives are to:
1.
Investigate the influence of media
reporting on voting behaviour in Nigeria during the presidential elections of 2011
and 2015;
2.
Determine the influence of media
reporting on leadership ascendancy in Nigeria in the 2011 and 2015 presidential
elections;
3.
Appraise the nature of the influence
exerted by the media on leadership ascendancy in Nigeria during the 2011 and
2015 presidential elections;
4.
Examine the composite influence of media
reporting and voting behaviour on leadership ascendancy during 2011 and 2015
presidential electons;
5.
Examine the manner, trend and language
of the frequency of newspaper and television reporting of Presidential
elections of the period under study 2011 and 2015,
6.
Evaluate the influence of media
Ownership on media reporting of presidential elections in Nigeria in 2011 and
2015.
1.4
Research Questions
In giving direction to this work, the following
research questions were asked.
1.
How did media reporting influence voting
behaviour in Nigeria during the presidential elections conducted in 2011 and
2015?
2.
How did media reporting influence
leadership ascendancy in Nigeria during the 2011 and 2015 presidential
elections?
3.
What is the nature of the influence
exerted by the media on leadership ascendancy in Nigeria during the 2011 and
2015 presidential elections?
4.
What was the composite influence of
media reporting to voting behaviour on leadership ascendancy in the 2011 and
2015 presidential elections?
5.
What was the manner, trend and language
of the frequency of newspaper and television reporting of Presidential
elections of the period under study 2011 and 2015?
6.
How did media ownership influence media
reporting of the presidential elections in Nigeria in 2011 and 2015?
1.5
Hypotheses
The following hypotheses were tested at
0.05 level of significance:
H01:Media reporting has no
influence on voting behaviour.
H02:Media
reporting has no influence on leadership ascendancy.
H03: There is no significant
relationship between voting behaviour and leadership ascendancy.
H04: There is no composite
influence of media reporting and voting behaviour on leadership ascendancy.
1.6
Significance of the Study
This study would enlighten relevant
stakeholders such as, political parties, candidates and civic society
organization, on the influence of reporting on political awareness and campaign
opportunity. The study would guide the thought of the electorate not to believe
everything they hear from the media. It will also add to the body of existing
knowledge on the type of influence exerted by media reporting on voting behaviour.
This research would inform government
and other electoral management body that media reporting will continue to set
agenda for political discussion and voting behavior for people during
elections, consequently impacting leadership ascendancy.
This study would ignite or kindle
voters’ verification of information reported by the media before taking a
decision on which candidate to vote for. It would create the consciousness on
voters on the need to rely on credible alternate sources of information before
making their decision.
Finally, this studywould establish
empirically the extent of media reporting influence on voting behaviour towards
the choice of candidates in 2011 and 2015 presidential elections.
1.7
Scope of the Study
There is no doubt that media reporting
and its influence on voting behavior to leadership ascendancy cuts across every
level of election in different times ranging from 2011 and 2015 presidential elections. The study examined
the impact of media reporting limited to radio, television and newspaper
reporting and its influence on voting behavior to leadership ascendancy. This
study is set to determine the type of influence, the factors determining the
behaviour and attitude that voters adopt based on information available to them
from the media and how it is reported in six states purposively selected from
each geopolitical zone in Nigeria with a focus on presidential elections of
2011 and 2015. The focus is chosen because of its currency and the
peculiarities of both presidential candidates, Muhammadu Buhari and Goodluck
Jonathan contesting in 2011 and 2015 concurrently. This work shall be limited
to the reporting of the following television channels: Channels television,
African Independent Television, Nigerian Television Authority. This is on the
basis that they are widely watched television stations, and covers all the
states in Nigeria. And the following newspapers: The Guardian, Vanguard, The
Nation, Daily Sun, Leadership and The Punch. This is also selected on their
rating as the most widely read newspapers in Nigeria.
1.8
Operational Definition of Terms
The following are terms which occur in
the research study which need to be defined to enable the reader understand the
appropriate context in which they have been used.
Media
Reporting: is the recounting of news worthy events by
television, print media, and radio, to inform or educate as comprehensively and
accurately as possible, to the public who are expected to be guided by facts,
accuracy and objectivity.
Voting
Behaviour: is a form of political behaviour
exhibited by electorate. The systematic study of the voting patterns of the electorate
of a given constituency in an election which provides insight into the
sociology of the voters, factors that influence their voting patterns and the
direction of their votes.
Election:
involves the choice of persons who are to exercise authority on behalf of the
people. It is a democratic means by which people choose their representatives
or rulers. It allows the people to choose between two or more alternatives.
Elections are held in every sphere of life where all the people cannot be
directly involved such as clubs, churches, schools, professional associations
etc.
Leadership
Ascendancy: is the action of leading or directing a
group of people or an organization, or the ability to occupy a position of
dominant power or influence or the state of being in the leading; governing or
controlling influence; domination. Leadership is developed through social
influences. On one end of the range a leader is defined by a set of recommended
behaviors which separates them from followers. On the other end, leadership is
a temporary role that can be filled by anyone who has displayed intelligence,
dominance, self-confidence, level of energy and activity, and task-relevant
knowledge.
Media
Ownership: refers to proprietary, financing and
control of mass communication for the purpose of making profit and enhancing
the profession of journalism. It is the owning of a medium or media of
communications such as newspaper, magazine, television or radio for the
dissemination of information, views, opinions and ideas within the confined
laws of a country.
Agenda
Setting: is an action undertaken by the media whereby the
frequency of a particular news item and importance attached to it by the media
raises the consciousness and discussion of government and the public thus
determining what people will think and talk about in order to make a change.
1.9
Chapter Outline
The study
comprises six chapters. The first chapter is the introductory chapter
highlighting the research problem, objectives, hypotheses, scope, significance
and definition of key terms. The second chapter reviews relevant scholarly
literature on the understudied phenomena, and interrogate the major theoretical
underpinning of the study. The third chapter contains the methodology that is
applied for effective execution of the research; the specifics of the research
design and methods and instruments that is applied in the study. The fourth
chapter consists of the presentation of data collected through questionnaire
administration, analyses, and discussion of these data. The fifth chapter covers the presentation and
content analysis of the interview responses and front page reports of selected
national newspapers, while the sixth and final chapter contains the summary of
the study, conclusion, and recommendations.
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