ABSTRACT
The study
investigates empirically the impact of interest rate on manufacturing sector
output in Nigeria. The broad objective of this study is; to determine the
impact of interest rate on manufacturing sector output in Nigeria. Annual data
on manufacturing sector output,
inflation rate, commercial banks total loan volume
and interest rate from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical
bulletin and Index Mundi covering the period 1981 – 2015 were utilized. A model
was constructed to incorporate manufacturing
sector output as dependent variable, and commercial banks total loan volume, inflation rate and interest rate as the independent
variables and tested using the Ordinary least Square (OLS) Methods. The
Stationarity (Unit roots) status of the series was examined using the
appropriate statistics. Some of the assumptions of the OLS models were also
tested to avoid spurious regression. The granger causality test was also
conducted to determine the directions of causality. However, the result showed
that commercial banks total loan volume
and inflation rate had positive impacts on manufacturing sector output in
Nigeria during the period covered while interest rate had negative impact on
manufacturing sector output of Nigeria. The study recommends that The Central
Bank of Nigeria and other monetary authorities should reduce the interest rate
being charged on loans borrowed from the commercial banks through the reduction
of bank rate and other deposit requirements of the commercial banks in order to
make funds available to the manufacturing sector of the country which will
increase its output.
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the Study
Every good or service has a price. So also is the service
of lending money to others, a service which is critical to the survival and
growth of businesses, households and individuals. The price of this service is
called interest rate.
Like every
price, interest rate is determined by the law of demand and supply of the
commodity, which in this case is money. In the economy, the level of interest
rate is chiefly determined by the amount of money or funds available for
lending and borrowing.
On the supply side are businesses, households and individuals that save. On the demand side are the individuals, households businesses, including government that borrow either to augment income or invest in income generating projects.
Between these groups are the banks and other financial institutions that mobilizes savings in the form of deposits and investment products and lend the funds mobilized to those who want to borrow.
As in the determination of other prices, those who supply the funds, the savers desire and demand for high interest rates, while those who borrow desire low interest rate. Meanwhile the banks also want to ensure that the lending interest rate covers the cost incurred for their operations, and adequate profit for their shareholders.
If the interest rate is too low, especially lower than the rate at which prices of goods and services are increasing (inflation), it would discourage people from saving, and it can make them to take their money out of the country to where the interest rate is high. But if the interest rate is too high, a lot of households and businesses would find it unprofitable to borrow or pass the high interest rate to consumers of their products.
On the supply side are businesses, households and individuals that save. On the demand side are the individuals, households businesses, including government that borrow either to augment income or invest in income generating projects.
Between these groups are the banks and other financial institutions that mobilizes savings in the form of deposits and investment products and lend the funds mobilized to those who want to borrow.
As in the determination of other prices, those who supply the funds, the savers desire and demand for high interest rates, while those who borrow desire low interest rate. Meanwhile the banks also want to ensure that the lending interest rate covers the cost incurred for their operations, and adequate profit for their shareholders.
If the interest rate is too low, especially lower than the rate at which prices of goods and services are increasing (inflation), it would discourage people from saving, and it can make them to take their money out of the country to where the interest rate is high. But if the interest rate is too high, a lot of households and businesses would find it unprofitable to borrow or pass the high interest rate to consumers of their products.
Also, where the nature of the funds available for lending
are short term, that is below one year, businesses would not be able to borrow
to fund projects that have long gestation period. In this situation, the
manufacturing sector and the agricultural sector would be at disadvantaged
while the services sector would be at advantage. And that is the case in
Nigeria, where 80 per cent of bank deposits are for tenures below one year.
In every country, the role of ensuring that the interest
rate is not too low to discourage savings or too high to discourage borrowing
for activities that indirectly increase investments and employment is entrusted
to the central bank.
The primary objective of central banks is price stability
or stable prices of goods and services. This they do by regulating the money supply
in the economy. If the money is too much it can cause a situation where too
much money chases few goods, and hence cause prices to rise persistently
leading to inflation.
But sometimes in an attempt to ensure this does not happen
the central bank introduces measures that reduce volume of money in supply, and
this indirectly reduces money available for lending and thus increased the
price of money, which is interest rate.
The
manufacturing sector plays a significant role in the transformation of the
economy. For example, it is an avenue for increasing productivity related to
import replacement and export expansion, creating foreign exchange earning
capacity; and raising employment and per capital income which causes unique
consumption patterns (Imoughele and Ismaila, 2014). Furthermore, Ogwuma (1995)
opines that it creates investment capital at a faster rate than any other sector
of the economy while promoting wider and more effective linkages among different
sectors. Loto (2012) revealed that the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP)
introduced in May 1986 was partly designed to revitalize the manufacturing
sector by shifting emphasis to increased domestic sourcing of inputs through
monetary and fiscal incentives. The deregulation of the foreign exchange market
was also effected to make non-oil exports especially manufacturing sector more
competitive even though, this also resulted in massive escalation in input costs
(Loto, 2012).
Examining the growth of the manufacturing sector over the
years in Nigerian, the share of the manufacturing sector in gross domestic
product has not been impressive.Over the thirty five (35) years of this study,
the percentage of the manufacturing sector in GDP averaged 18% in the 80s’ (i.e.
between 1981 and 1989). In 1994, the manufacturing sector contributed above 20%
into the Nigeria’s GDP but have been on the decline afterwards. In the recent
times,specifically from 2002, the manufacturing sector contributes less than
10% to gross domestic product and was almost but averaging 9% between 2013 and
2015. The highest growth rate of the Nigerian manufacturing sector of 60.3% was
recorded in 1994 and although negative in 1984. The whooping 60% growth rate
recorded in 1994 dropped drastically to 16.7% in 1995 and growing by a paltry 3%
in 2015. This implies that the Nigeria manufacturing sector has not improved in
terms of its growth rate from 1995.
This dismal performance of the sector in Nigeria could be
attributed to massive importation of finished goods and inadequate financial
support for the manufacturing sector, which ultimately has contributed to the
reduction in capacity utilization of the manufacturing sector in the country.
The insignificant contribution of the sector to gross domestic product could be
as a result of continued deterioration in infrastructural facility as well as
lack of access to cheap finance. Obamuyi, Edun and Kayode (2010) asserted that
the growth rate of manufacturing sector in Nigeria has been constrained due to
inadequate funding, either due to the inefficient capital market or the culture
of the Nigerian banks to finance mainly short term investment. The long term
funds from the banking sector are not easily accessible as a result of the
stringent and restrictive credit guidelines to the sector as well as high
interest rates. All these could be the reason why the Nigerian manufacturing
sector has failed to serve as an avenue for increasing productivity in relation
to import replacement and export expansion, creating foreign exchange earning
capacity, rising employment and per capita income, which causes unique
consumption patterns.
The manufacturing sector in Nigeria is faced with the
problem of accessibility to funds. Even the financial sector reform of the
Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986, which was meant to correct the
structural imbalance in the economy and liberalize the financial systems did not
achieve the expected results (Obamuyi,Edun and Kayode, 2010). As Edirisuriya
(2008) reported, financial sector reforms are expected to promote a more
efficient allocation of resources and ensure that financial intermediation
occurs as efficiently as possible.
This also implies that financial sector liberalization
brings competition in the financial markets, raises interest rate to encourage
savings, thereby making funds available for investment, and hence lead to
economic growth (Asamoah, 2008). However, these seem not to be the case in
Nigeria.
Since the inception of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)
on 1st July, 1959, monetary policy has been under the control of the
Bank(CBN). Before 1st August 1987, interest rate was under the regulation of the
central Bank. This regulation was achieved by fixing the range within both
deposits and the lending rates are to be maintained.
According to the CBN, interest rate of orderly
growth of the financial regulation is for the promotion market, to combat
inflation and to lessen the burden of internal debt servicing of the government.
Since the deregulation, interest rates have been rising
almost uninterruptedly especially in recent years. From the average of 12.6
percent at the end of July, 1987, which marked the end of' theera of
administrative determination of the rates, lending rates moved to 17.6 percent
in August 1987 - the immediate month commencing the period of deregulation of
the rates.
The rapid upward movement in the interest rates was not
favourable to production, growth and infact the manufacturing sector of
the economy. Although the deposit rate seemed high enough to promote rising flow
of saving, the high lending rate appeared to have hindered the usage of the
resources mobilized. In an attempt to economize on a resource that was getting
increasingly expensive,many firms especially the manufacturers abstained from
borrowing from banks while the bulk of those who borrowed made losses or profit margins
that could not support production initiatives. This could have resulted in sharp
curtailment of output. Long-term financial requirements for expansion was
largely met through the floatation of new equity and debenture. This was
confirmed by the large boost in the amount of new issue s of stocks and
debentures during the period. While distribution trade and other quick yielding
activities were able to obtain bank financing, investment in equipment and
machinery for prosecuting expanding productive activities reduced sharply.
Although the high interest rate encouraged inflow of
funds, the bulk of the inflow went to distributive trade and business services.
It is crystal clear that since the introduction of the
policy on interest rates deregulation in the banking industry in August,1987,
the levels of the rates have persistently increased.
In particular, the lending rates of commercial and
merchant banks assumed a sharp upward trend. This dealt a serious devastating
blow to the manufacturing sector and the economy as a whole.
However, all the regulations and deregulations of interest
rate in Nigeria were all in a bid to manage the country’s capital allocation
through the financial sector. The essence of managing interest rates were based
onthe premise that the market, if freely allowed to determine the rate of
interest would exclude some priority sectors. Thus, interest rates were adjusted
through the “invisible hand” in order to promote increased level of investment
in the various preferred sectors of the economy. Prominent among the preferred
sectors were the agricultural, manufacturing and solid mineral sectors which
were accorded priority and deposit money banks were directed to charge
preferential interest rates on all loans to encourage the upsurge of
small-scale industrialization which is a catalyst for economic development
(Udoka and Roland, 2012). Thus, this study therefore examines the effect of
interest rates on the performances of the Nigerian manufacturing sector.
1.2 Statement of the Problem
The observed reduction in manufacturing sector output in
Nigeria is attributed to the instability of the interest rate in the country
which discourages foreign and local investors to carry out investment
activities which would be beneficial to the country.The dismal performance of
the Nigerian manufacturing sector could be attributed to inadequacy of
financial support for the manufacturing sector, which ultimately has contributed
to the reduction in capacity utilization of the manufacturing sector in the country.
The insignificant contribution of the sector to gross domestic product could be
as a result of continued deterioration in infrastructural facility as well as
lack of access to cheap finance characterized by rising lending rate. Also, the
debt overhang has also discouraged investment in the manufacturing sector,
through its implied credit constraints in international capital markets as a
result of flawed interest rate policies by successive monetary authorities in
Nigeria.
Have seen the series of problems that can emanate from
flawed interest rate policy, the researcher therefore seeks to unravel further
influence of interest rate on the manufacturing sector output in Nigeria.
1.3 Objective of the Study
The broad objective of this study is to determine the
impact of interest rate on manufacturing sector output in Nigeria. The specific
objectives of the study include:
1. To determine the impact of interest
rate on manufacturing sector output in Nigeria.
2. To examine the impact of commercial
bank total loan volume on manufacturing sector output in Nigeria.
3. To determine the impact of inflation
rate on the manufacturing sector output in Nigeria.
4. To evaluate the direction of
causality between interest rate, inflation rate, commercial bank total loan and
manufacturing sector output in Nigeria.
1.4 Hypotheses of the Study
Based on the objective of the study, this study will
evaluate the following hypothesis:
1. H0: Interest rate has no
significant impact on manufacturing sector output in Nigeria.
2. H0: commercial bank total loan
volume has no significant impact on manufacturing sector output in Nigeria.
3. H0: Inflation rate has no
significant impact on manufacturing sector output in Nigeria.
4. H0: There exist no causal
relationship between interest rate, inflation rate, commercial bank total loan
volume and manufacturing sector output in Nigeria.
1.5 Significance of the Study
This research work will further serve as a guide and
provide insight for future research on this topic and related field for
researchers who are willing to improve it.
The study is also intended to assist policy makers in
designing and implementing policies targeted at promoting interest rate and
manufacturing sector output in Nigeria.
1.6 Scope and Limitations of the Study
The study investigates the impact interest rate on
manufacturing sector output in Nigeria for a period of 34 years, from
1981-2015. This research work comprises of five parts. Part one constitutes the introduction,
part two deals with the theoretical framework and the empirical reviewed. Part
three focuses on the research methodology, while part four deals with the data
interpretation and analysis. And finally, part five gives a summary, conclusion
and policy recommendations.
In the course of the study, the researcher encountered
series of difficulties ranging from collection of accurate data to technical
and financial difficulties.
================================================================
Item Type: Project Material | Attribute: 79 pages | Chapters: 1-5
Format: MS Word | Price: N3,000 | Delivery: Within 30Mins.
================================================================
No comments:
Post a Comment