THE EFFECT OF POPULATION FACTORS ON AGGREGATE ENERGY USE AND CARBON EMISSION IN NIGERIA

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Cover Page

Title page

Certification

Approval

Dedication

Acknowledgement

Abstract

Table of contents

CHAPTER ONE – Introduction

1.1       Background of the Study

1.2       Statement of the Problem

1.3       Research Questions

1.4       Objectives of the Study

1.5       Hypotheses of the Study

1.6       Significance of the Study

1.7       Scope of the Study

CHAPTER TWO: Literature Review

2.1       Conceptual Literature

2.2       Theoretical Literature

2.2.1    Classical Theory of Population Growth

2.2.2    The Malthusian Theory

2.2. 3   The Post-Malthusian theories

2.2.4    Neoclassical theory of population Growth

2.3       Theoretical models linking population and carbon emission

2.4       Empirical Literature

2.5       Limitation of Previous Studies

CHAPTER THREE: Methodology

3.1       Theoretical Framework

3.2       Model Specification

3.3       Statistical Criterion

3.4       Econometric tests

3.5       Justification of the model

3.6       Diagnostic Tests

3.7       Source of Data and Software package

CHAPTER FOUR: Data presentation and analysis of results

4.1       Introduction

4.2       Data presentation

4.2.1    Evaluation of regression results

4.2.2    Model one- Economic criteria

4.2.3    Model 2-Economic criteria

4.3       Discussion of Findings

CHAPTER FIVE: Summary, conclusion and recommendations

5.1       Summary of Findings

5.2       Conclusion

5.3       Policy Recommendations

References

Appendix

Abstract

Population factors are the dynamics that affect economic growth which comprises population growth, mortality, fertility and age-structural change as well as urban growth/urbanization. Owing to these, human population is increasingly affecting global climate through energy consumption. Globally, among several pollutants contributing to climate change, carbon (CO) emissions account for more than 75% of greenhouse gas emissions with about 80% of it generated by the energy sector. However, this study fills the gap in the literature of the relationship among economic growth, energy consumption and carbon emissions by examining the effect of population factors on energy use and carbon emissions in Nigeria. This is done by assessing the main evidence for the effects of population change on emissions driving climate change, mainly focused on carbon from the energy system. It is on this premise that the study examines differential impact of population factors on energy use and carbon emission using an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) developed by Pesaran, Shin and Smith, (2001) by using data set comprising, aggregate energy consumption, and carbon emission and population variables in Nigeria for the period 1980-2013. The study has the following variables carbon emission, energy use, urban population, population density, working population, real gross domestic product. The results show that population factors have more significant effect on energy use and carbon emission than economic growth. Energy consumption and economic growth puts some essential policy implications on the economy of Nigeria. The insignificance of output on energy consumption and carbon emission leads us to draw a conclusion that production activities do account for the increasing energy use and carbon emission rather population factors account for the increasing energy use. This suggests that society increases its per capita energy use when it increases in population size (and decreases its energy use per capita when its population falls). The results of this study suggest that the role of family planning is sensible environmentally because it’s another effective means of regulating birth. Also, the study suggest that alternative source of energy should be developed to reduce the risk posed by use of hydrocarbon as well as fuel environmental education should be encouraged.

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1             Background Information

The emphasis on the effect of population factors on economic development has varied considerably over time. In some eras, population factors have been viewed by many as strongly shaping development prospects, often with dire concerns about overpopulation in a Malthusian tradition, (Berhman, Duryea & Szekely, 1999) in (Akpan & Akpan 2012). As the interest has increased on how energy consumption and its resulting carbon emissions impact on climate, and thus people, so too has the interest on how population and population processes impact energy consumption and carbon emissions. Dyson (2010) has identified population growth, mortality, fertility and age-structural change as well as urban growth/urbanization as population factors that affect economic growth. Due to the rapid development of urbanization in the world including Nigeria in this 21st century, energy consumption in urban areas in Nigeria is on the high-intensity (Akpan & Akpan, 2012). The rapid expansion of urban areas is increasingly affecting national and global climate and environment, and has attracted people's attention.

With the rapid population growth and urban development in Nigeria, it becomes necessary to examine their link with energy consumption. This is because inadequate supply of energy restricts socio-economic activities and adversely affects the quality of life. When examined from the other way round, increased energy consumption leads to improvement in standards of living, manifested in increased food production, increased industrial output, the provision of efficient transportation, adequate shelter, healthcare and other human services (Oyedepo, 2013). This implies that the efficient exploitation and development of a nation’s energy resources is of great importance to the progress and well-being of the populace and the overall growth of the economy, (Akpan and Akpan 2012). Thus, inadequate development and inefficient management of the energy sector has resulted in a serious demand-supply gap experienced in the country. Notably among them is the demand-supply gap in the electricity sector. Electricity is one of the most demanded energy sources in the country, but its supply has been very erratic due to mainly poor management and the issue of population size of the country. This development has put much pressure to high demand for petroleum substitutes which also serves as major supplier of transportation energy in Nigeria, (Akinlo, 2009). The effect of this trend on global warming and climate change, in terms of addition to carbon...

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